We came up with a surprising conclusion: this is not a Tampa situation. The Pens can keep together a good bit of their team and will likely be Cup Contenders for years to come.
Here is our first look at the situation (we will update the numbers as they become official):
Pens payroll projections
-yellow cells are our projections
-red cells mean that player is gone from the team.
Assumptions we made:
- The salary cap for 2008-09 will rise to about $55 million.
- The Penguins will be willing to spend up to the cap limit.
- Contracts extend out through the 2012-13 season bu estimating the roster and how much each player makes beyond next season is near impossible.
- We budgeted for 22 players in 2008-09; additional players will be added as the season goes on to compensate for injuries and promotions/demotions.
- If Marian Hossa is serious about taking a bit less to remain with the Pens, and the team is serious about him being their #1 priority, then there is no reason why they cannot come to an agreement. We budgeted Hossa for $8M per year and think it would be a great signing at that price.
- Ryan Malone has played his last game as a Penguin. He priced himself out of a Pens sweater with his play and the organization's correct determination to make Hossa their #1 priority over Malone sealed the deal.
- Even with the news that the Pens would take Fleury to arbitration, we expect a long term deal to be agreed upon before the July 20 deadline and we assessed the Flower to earn $4M per year. Maybe a bit low, but Fleury may take the security over having to prove himself for another year before cashing in.
- Gino Malkin cashes in at the same rate for Hossa ~ $8M/year. GBoF has no problem with Malkin getting more than Hossa but since Hossa has a few more years in the bank, their deals may well be very similar. Between the two, we budgeted for $16M per year - split it up however you want but that should be enough to sign them both.
- Jordan Staal may have to sit tight through another season. A future Selke winner? Probably. But 12 goals in a year isn't going to get him what he wants and will likely deserve. And the Pens could use a little relief this offseason though this decision would likely turn into the biggest story of the upcoming season and following offseason. The Trib is reporting that the team may negotiate with Staal during the season and we projected $5M per year starting in 2009-10.
- On defense, say godbye to Orpik, Sydor & Nasreddine. But welcome Alex Goligoski and pray that Mark Eaton, resigned at a projected $800K, can stay healthy.
- Up front, Big Georges can stay for a small raise to $1.5M.
- Dupuis can still be a bargain at $1M, though to be honest, we can easily see him leaving and being replaced with someone for about the same rate.
- Jeff Taffe and Adam Hall stick around and play larger roles of the team.
- Two new players totaling about $1M will join the roster - these could easily be Jonathan Filewich and Ryan Stone, or perhaps Luca Caputa or some other WBS Baby Pens player.
- Those new, cheap players will replace Scary Gary and Ruutu. Roberts may retire or if he is willing to take a serious paycut of about 50% may be welcomed back. Ruutu will invite bidders and his price will be too high for the Pens.
- Conklin is gone, Sabo is the backup.
- Staying or signing an extension: Hossa, Eaton, Fleury, Laraque, Malkin, Dupuis, Taffe, Hall.
- Joining the team: Goligoski and two players such as Filewich and Stone.
- Leaving: Malone, Sydor, Orpik, Roberts, Ruutu, Nasreddine.
- One major headache on the way: Staal
More importantly, this team would still have the potential to contend for the Cup. It would be impossible to say it is better than how the roster currently stands, but if players step in and contribute, which is always needed in any Cup run, there is no reason why this can't remain at the top of the Wales Conference. The nucleus remains intact and while a deal with Staal might become a major issue, especially if he regains his goal scoring touch, that decision can be made in relative isolation during the season or next offseason. Most importanntly, we can very realistically hope to see Hossa skating with Sid for another 5 years, Malkin feeding Sykora and opposing coaches trembling.
