Thursday, November 15, 2007

Debunking Steeler Myths, Part 1

  • The Steelers offense is heavily run oriented and they use the run to set up the pass.

    While the Steelers are maintaining a balance of runs vs pass plays, 55% runs vs 45% passes, that is very similar to what they have posted in past years, the difference is when these plays are occurring.

    On difference is that in 2007, the Steelers are passing to score TDs instead of running, a significant change from previous years. This year, they are on pace for 39 TD passes and only 11 rushing TDs. In 2006, the ratio was 23 pass/16 rush. In the Super Bowl year of 2005, it was 21/21. In 2004, Ben's rookie year, it was 20 by pass / 16 by run. Even the pass happy Mularkey team of 2003 had a 19/10 TD ratio. In the Super Bowl year of 1995, the ratio was 21/17. It is not a coincidence that they are averaging more points per game, 28.1, then they have at any time since Cowher became coach by over 3 points/game and are 5th in the league in scoring. So while the Steelers remain focused on running the ball, the purpose behind running and passing has changed: in 2007, they are passing to score and running when they have a lead, to chew time and in the second half.

    A second difference is how they are getting into position to score those TDs. As JJ Cooper points out on AOL FanHouse, the Steelers have 65 first downs on the ground and 106 in the air. In comparison the Colts have 83 rushing first downs and 117 passing first downs. And as we noted on Monday, the Steelers are the best in the league at converting third downs at 53%. And they have had the 4th most 3rd down plays. As much as it pains me to see them throw the ball or turn to a reverse on 3rd & 2, the Steelers are effectively converting third downs via the pass and staying on the field,a s evidenced by the fact that they lead the league in time of possession. And that means they are keeping drives alive and moving down the field primarily via the pass, and not the run, as many still believe.

  • Big Ben is a game manager only.

    After leading the comeback vs the Browns, Ben now has 12 4th quarter game winning drives in his career. And don't forget has game against Denver this year, which could have been very similar to his game vs the Browns. In both games, Ben committed costly turnovers in the first half and then staged second half rallies. Versus the Broncos and down 21-7 at the half, Ben threw 3 TDs in the second half, including 2 in the 4th quarter to tie the game with only 1:16 left. The only difference in that game is that the defense then allowed the Broncos to drive into FG range and the Steelers lost.

    Of course, the strongest support for Ben as much more than someone whose task is not to lose the game and let others win is the 2005 playoff run. True, his Super Bowl numbers were not good, but he did make several big plays in that game (including a TD run and a scramble and throw to Hines that set up another) the team would not have been in that game without Ben putting up these numbers in the playoffs:
    -@ Cincy: 14/18; 208 yards; 3 TDs
    -@ Indy: 14/24; 197 yards; 2 TDs; game saving tackle
    -@ Denver: 21/29; 275 yards; 2 pass TDs; 1 rush TD

    As Cris Collinsworth said last Sunday night, Ben is off to the greatest start to a career of any QB in history. The current benchmark for that is Dan Marino. But what Ben is being criticized for now (not having to throw 35 times a game to carry his team) is exactly what Dan Marino had to do to help his early Dolphin teams win. And Marino never did earn a Super Bowl win, largely because the rest of his team wasn't good enough and in all probability they weren't good enough because Marino proved he could throw so well that the Dolphins concentrated on getting him tools to work with instead of a good defense or a quality running back. If the Dolphs were good enough Marino wouldn't have thrown 40 times per game and put up the gaudy stats he did.

    The last I checked, the object of football is to win and, as has been proven time and again, the formula for winning, with rare exception, is not based solely on throwing the ball. The formula is having a balanced team: run vs pass; offense vs defense. So Ben does not throw the ball 35-40 times per game because that is not the formula to winning, not just the Steelers formula for winning (though they understand that formula as well as any team). Ben wins. He is 41-15 as a pro. Show me a game manager who puts up those numbers.


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