Who Can Pens Keep?

There has been a lot written and spoken about who the Pens can keep for next season and beyond in hopes of keeping a championship caliber team together. So we decided to look at the salaries the team has committed to and are likely to pay out over the next few seasons.

We came up with a surprising conclusion: this is not a Tampa situation. The Pens can keep together a good bit of their team and will likely be Cup Contenders for years to come.

Here is our first look at the situation (we will update the numbers as they become official):
Pens payroll projections
-yellow cells are our projections
-red cells mean that player is gone from the team.


Assumptions we made:

• The salary cap for 2008-09 will rise to about $55 million.
• The Penguins will be willing to spend up to the cap limit.
• Contracts extend out through the 2012-13 season bu estimating the roster and how much each player makes beyond next season is near impossible.
• We budgeted for 22 players in 2008-09; additional players will be added as the season goes on to compensate for injuries and promotions/demotions.

GBoF Conclusions:

• If Marian Hossa is serious about taking a bit less to remain with the Pens, and the team is serious about him being their #1 priority, then there is no reason why they cannot come to an agreement. We budgeted Hossa for $8M per year and think it would be a great signing at that price.
• Ryan Malone has played his last game as a Penguin. He priced himself out of a Pens sweater with his play and the organization's correct determination to make Hossa their #1 priority over Malone sealed the deal.
• Even with the news that the Pens would take Fleury to arbitration, we expect a long term deal to be agreed upon before the July 20 deadline and we assessed the Flower to earn $4M per year. Maybe a bit low, but Fleury may take the security over having to prove himself for another year before cashing in.
• Gino Malkin cashes in at the same rate for Hossa ~ $8M/year. GBoF has no problem with Malkin getting more than Hossa but since Hossa has a few more years in the bank, their deals may well be very similar. Between the two, we budgeted for $16M per year - split it up however you want but that should be enough to sign them both.
• Jordan Staal may have to sit tight through another season. A future Selke winner? Probably. But 12 goals in a year isn't going to get him what he wants and will likely deserve. And the Pens could use a little relief this offseason though this decision would likely turn into the biggest story of the upcoming season and following offseason. The Trib is reporting that the team may negotiate with Staal during the season and we projected $5M per year starting in 2009-10.
• On defense, say godbye to Orpik, Sydor & Nasreddine. But welcome Alex Goligoski and pray that Mark Eaton, resigned at a projected $800K, can stay healthy.
• Up front, Big Georges can stay for a small raise to $1.5M.
  
• Dupuis can still be a bargain at $1M, though to be honest, we can easily see him leaving and being replaced with someone for about the same rate.
• Jeff Taffe and Adam Hall stick around and play larger roles of the team.
• Two new players totaling about $1M will join the roster - these could easily be Jonathan Filewich and Ryan Stone, or perhaps Luca Caputa or some other WBS Baby Pens player.
• Those new, cheap players will replace Scary Gary and Ruutu. Roberts may retire or if he is willing to take a serious paycut of about 50% may be welcomed back. Ruutu will invite bidders and his price will be too high for the Pens.
  
• Conklin is gone, Sabo is the backup.

So our initial analysis is this...

• Staying or signing an extension: Hossa, Eaton, Fleury, Laraque, Malkin, Dupuis, Taffe, Hall.
• Joining the team: Goligoski and two players such as Filewich and Stone.
• Leaving: Malone, Sydor, Orpik, Roberts, Ruutu, Nasreddine.
• One major headache on the way: Staal
  

With our projections, the roster would put the Pens at just under $53 million and under the probable $55M cap.

More importantly, this team would still have the potential to contend for the Cup. It would be impossible to say it is better than how the roster currently stands, but if players step in and contribute, which is always needed in any Cup run, there is no reason why this can't remain at the top of the Wales Conference. The nucleus remains intact and while a deal with Staal might become a major issue, especially if he regains his goal scoring touch, that decision can be made in relative isolation during the season or next offseason. Most importanntly, we can very realistically hope to see Hossa skating with Sid for another 5 years, Malkin feeding Sykora and opposing coaches trembling.

Last Night was NOT the Night

Somehow this team is allergic to .500. They have now failed 5 times this year to win a game that would ahve put them at the break even mark. Last night was the most frustrating as they held a 6-1 lead after 4 innings and then proceeded to watch not quite ace Phil Dumatrait walk the house and the bullpen blow up, leading to a desultory 9-6 loss to the O's.

Just to respond to a few bloggers/media types who say that .500 is nothing to rally behind, I say feh! This team hasn't seen it in 15 years and they are not going to the playoffs this year so it would be a sign of progress that the team could build on. And though they've been at .500 at similar points in past seasons, it would be nice to get there and maybe beyond, but you have to get to .500 first. And 0-5 when one game below doesn't cut it.

Some nice articles and links from Baltimore yesterday, mainly discussing the Bucs/O's rivalry or 2 World Series they played in the 70s:

• Pirates: Ahoy, memories
• Looking back on '79 Series
• Former Pirate has fond memories of '71
• Photos from 71 & 79

Trib: Hossa is Pens' #1 priority

Interesting. Seems like the Pens are trying to keep Sid very happy and content. Though having one of the NHL's top 3 two way players (with Zetterberg and Datsyuk) on your team is never a bad thing.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/s_572725.html

Is Tonight the Night?

As you can see from the below, the Bucs head into Baltimore at 33-34, one game below the magic .500 mark. At least 4 times previously this season, the Bucs have been at this point only to lose.

Tonight they face the 32-33 Orioles in Baltimore. As if playing the Bucs first game in Baltimore since winning Game 7 of the 1979 World Series isn't pressure enough, newly crowned ace Phil Dumatrait will take on the .500 gods with the additional motivation of being able to push the Bucs to the top of the All-Important Standings.

Interleague play has not been favorable to the Bucs. They have a baseball worst 57-94 record vs the AL since play started. And they get no breaks this time around, playing a decent Orioles team, the first place White Sox, the .500 Blue Jays, the dangerous and improving Yankees and finishing with the very impressive Rays. Having 9 at home whould help, but if they falter in the first 6 on the road, .500 could be far away in the rear view mirror by the time they return to PNC.

The All-Important Standings
Yankees 34-33 - $209M
Pirates 33-34 1.0 $49M
Mets 31-34 2.0 $138M
Tigers 29-37 4.5 $139M

The NHL still has a long way to go

Empty Netters caught this at the NHL Awards Show last night:



This guy is maybe the league's all time best defenseman and they can't even spell his name right? Wow.

Malkin says extension coming

Good to hear these quotes from Gino:

"I'm thinking maybe five or six years," said Malkin, set to enter the final season of his three-year entry-level deal. "I'm an easy guy to deal with. I'd love to stay in Pittsburgh."

Malkin added that his annual salary did not need to top the $8.7 million teammate and Penguins captain Sidney Crosby will average each of the next five seasons.

He's not their #1 priority only because he has another year until restricted free agency and can't resign until after July 1 and they have to sign Fleury before July 1. But it seems like he won't be looking to blow up the pay structure Shero and Sid set last year, which would give them a better chance to keep the team together.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/s_572532.html

Double yoi!! Asteroid named for Myron Cope.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08164/889467-100.stm?cmpid=latest.xml

An asteroid that orbits the sun between Mars and Jupiter officially has been named 7835 Myroncope in honor of legendary Steelers broadcaster Myron Cope, who died Feb. 27. The name, proposed in March by Dr. Eric Mamajek of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Mass., became official late last month after approval by the International Astronomical Union. The IAU is a body of astronomers charged with, among other things, naming celestial bodies.

"He was such an interesting character; I just thought it would be wonderful if he were memorialized in this way," Dr. Mamajek, a native of Bethel Park, said of Mr. Cope. "He was just sort of the quintessential Pittsburgher." Minor planet 7835 Myroncope is small, probably about 3 miles wide. It's also quite distant, coming only as close as 88 million miles from Earth. Its elliptical orbit can take it as far as 387 million miles away. The small size and distance means the asteroid cannot be seen by the naked eye.

And it will land on Cleveland...

Before Forbes Field?

Some great info about Pirate ballparks before Forbes Field, including historic Exposition Park on the North Side.

For the exact location of Exposition Park, check this out from 1890.

Pirates on June 11

As of today, despite a crushing 9th inning loss last night they stand at an almost respectable 31-34, close enough to think that they might actually be able to reach .500 this year. What has put them in this situation and what has to change and/or happen for them to do it?

The Good
-The outfield has generally been the most productive in baseball. Can they keep it up?
-They are 12-10 in one run games. Maybe they are finally doing the little things necessary. Then again, as most baseball stats guys will tell you, maybe this is just the law of averages evening out. But consider that since 1994, the Bucs have been over .500 in one run games only three seasons: 1997, 2001 and 2002. In the division winning seasons of 1990-92, the Bucs were far above .500 in one run games. Suffice to say, it seems to indicate that you generally win one run games at the same rate that you win other games, though there can be anomalies. Is 2008 an anomaly or will the record recede back towards .500?
-Their pythagorean record is 30-35, so it's not as if the team is winning games it shouldn't and the record masks a deficiency that will be exposed as the season goes on.
-Matt Capps was, up until last night, one of 3 closers who have double digit saves who have not blown one. Still, he has turned into a very reliable closer and should remain so. The bullpen in general has been a positive, especially with Grabow and Marte doing well from the left side and Yates from the right. There is no reason they won't continue to perform well and it jsut goes to show that the single biggest variable from one season to the next is relief pitching. You can build a good pen from guys who surprise and ride it for a year.
-The Pirates have played the second hardest schedule in baseball and are still 31-33. The fact that they're 3-9 vs the Cubs jacks that schedule strength number up, but the fact remains that they should play an easier schedule the rest of the way than they have so far.
-Because of their strength of schedule, ESPN ranks the Bucs as #9 in their RPI formula. There are 4 NL Central teams in the top 9, primarily because it's the only division in baseball with 3 teams above .500. But it's a sign that the Bucs have played decent baseball against good teams. Why can't they play at least as well against weaker teams?

The Bad
-The pitching has been very close to the worst in baseball. This has to get better to finish close to .500 but the Bucs' history is littered with guys who show promise on year and flame out the next: Perez, Benson, Schmidt, Duke. you'd expect Snell and Gorzo to balance things out somewhat, but you never know with this teams and it's pitching luck.
-We're not talking playoffs here. Keep it modest. .500 is the goal. Playing in a division with the best team in baseball as of today means the division is out of the question, unlike the 1997 scenario.
-They have been close to .500 at similar points in seasons past and have had the bottom drop out as the season fades and they fall further behind. Why would this season be any different?

The All-Important Standings
Yankees 33-32 - $209M
Pirates 31-34 2.0 $49M
Mets 30-33 2.0 $138M
Tigers 27-37 5.5 $139M

In looking at the above, the good seems to outweigh the bad, maybe this team can win 73 games instead of 72. They're currently on pace for 77 wins and have held to that pace for about a month. History says otherwise, but I'm bullish on the Bucs:

73-89

Heat Crazed

• There should be a law that if your school has to close early because it's too hot, maybe because it doesn't have a/c, then the school year is over right then. What a great day that would be.
  
• Lots of talk today about the Bucs scrap with the DBacks at PNC yesterday. First off, I like John Russell and think he has a chance to be at the helm of this team when they finally break through the .500 barrier at season's end. But let's not get carried away just yet. As noted historian Ron Cook writes, showing a fighting spirit in baseball will get you nowhere. Just ask Lloyd McClendon. And I'm not going overboard on Russell's job just yet because I was impressed with Jim Tracy for the first half of his first year, until he started blaming the players for everything abd and taking credit for all that was good. And look what happened to that train wreck. 31-33 still needs to be improved upon.
• Still, let me update the all-important standings:
  Yankees 32-32 - $209M
  Pirates 31-33 1.0 $49M
  Mets 30-32 1.0 $138M
  Tigers 26-37 5.5 $139M
• Bucs are 31-33 but what is reality and what is perception? Mike is generally right but wrong about a couple of facts that taint his article. For example, he says:
  

  See, the hallmark of most Pirate teams this decade have been long stretches of somewhat respectable numbers and records. For 5 out of the 6 months of the season, the Pirates have battled, fought and played pretty good ball. But then there's that one month. The one month where they win 3, 4 or 5 games, and lose the rest. The one month where they are 15 under in that month, and doom their season.

  Well, that's just not true. What is truer is that since 1993 they have played consistently badly but yet in several years managed to have one good or superior month that skews the perception.
  
  They have had plenty of bad months in that span including a 5-22 Sept mail it in to end in 1998, 4 8-20 months, one 8-21 in 2000 and one 7-19 in 2006.
  
  Let's look at it this way: to get to 90 wins and playoff contention a team has to play .555 baseball. To lose 100 games, a team has to play .383 ball. The number of months from 1993-May 2008 that the Bucs have played at these levels (combining Sept and Oct and out of 91 total):
  Playoff caliber, .555 and above: 8 (9% of total)
  Moderately Good, between .500 & .554: 18 (20%)
  Bad, between .383 and .499: 42 (46%)
  Horrible, below .383: 23 (25%)
  
  So there have definitely been some bad months of baseball, but it's almost equally balanced by the number of months where they play abouve .500 ball. Almost half the time, the Bucs have played at a level that is about where they finished.
  
• Mark Reynolds had quite a series especially considering he should have had another HR yesterday. I'm not sure how the umpires overruled the first base umpire considering that the TV replay was inconclusive as to whether the ball was going over the wall or bouncing off of it. It should have been an HR.
  
• The call for instant replay in baseball for helping with HR calls is simply adding a problem on top of another. The issue causing all these bad calls is the ballparks that have crazily drawn yellow lines as the HR demarcation line or that allow fans to reach over the fence to grab a ball. It's hard to argue with allowing paying fans to sit as close as posible to the field, bu for the ballpark architects to ignore the simple fact that there needs to more of a demarcation between what is an HR and what isn't than a yellow line is just dumb.
  
  Adding instant replay to try to correct this issue won't solve the problem. It may help in some cases, but there is no way that replays showed clearly reversible proof that Reynold's HR wasn't going over the wall. With replay, that call would have taken 15 minutes to clear up and I'm not sure which way they would have ruled.
  
  We can live with humans making the calls. All of them. Enough with replays adding 2/10ths of a second back onto a basketball time clock or the NFL's momentum-sucking, fan-deadening, under the hood fiasco.
• My early line has it this way: Fleury, Malkin and Staal get new contracts, Malone reups with the Pens, Hossa and Orpik leave. Also leaving, one way or another: Dupuis, Scary Gary, Ruutu & Conklin. Sticking around will also include: Hall, Laraque, Eaton and Tafffe.
  
  That's my early June heat crazed feeling. As of now.
  

Post Cup Syndrome

It's been a hard few days since Sid's backhander slid just wide and the Cup was paraded around Igloo ice. But to help get through the summer, here are a few things:

• The Coolest Helmet in History: The Pittsburgh Steelers
• Ace Dumatrait led the Bucs to a win and a 30-33 record. Here are your all-meaningful standings as of this morning June 9:
  Yankees 32-31 - $209M
  Mets 30-32 1.5 $138M
  Pirates 30-33 2.0 $49.3M
  Tigers 26-36 5.5 $139M
  
  The Bucs are still in contention with MLB's 3 top spending teams...
• However, the Bucs are 9.5 games behind the Cubs, which is what really matters.
• Only 7 out in the wild card chase behind the Cards, and 6 other teams.
• Haven't watched any of the retro Celts/Lakers clash (there is enough other 'noise' around this series, who needs to watch the games), but Mondesi's House had a great recap of Paul Pierce's Oscar winning performance from the weekend. Who's tougher: NBA stars, soccer players or my Grandmother?
• Dwight White died over the weekend at the young age of 58. 'Mad Dog' was a great player just below LC and Mean Joe, bu he told a great story about SB IX on SB X's America's Game episode on NFL Network. Dwight was sick the week of SB IX and in the hospital but raised himself to play a pivotal role in the game. Yet the team took their official photo without him since he was sick and he was driven to get in an official SB winning team photo.
• Too many Steelers are dying. Since 2000, 18 former players have died from various maladies and accidents.