Steelers Thursday Notes

Some interesting info and thoughts floating around today:

• PFW.com wonders if the Steelers secondary can bounce back from their embarrassing performance on Sunday. Their stunning conclusion: they are still very good against everyone else but the Patriots. The Steeler defense remains #1 overall by a wide margin but is now #2 in both rushing and passing yards allowed.
  
• PFW.com also ranks Ben as the best mobile QB in the league now that a certain Atlanta QB in is jail.
• Interesting site that gives the Steelers a 98% chance of making the playoffs. A couple of other items of note from the site, after you get through all the stats, are:
• their seed is currently calculated as 3.5, meaning they are as likely to be the 4 seed as the 3 seed. Still difficult to believe the Chargers would be able to come back vs the Titans but it would be nicer if somehow the Lions knocked them off.
• For this week's games, the ones with the biggest impact to the Steelers playoff chances and seeding are: Browns/Bills: a Bills win would help the Steelers the most in terms of playoff seeding (excluding the Steeler game itself), even more than a Detroit win over SD would help.
  
• Finishing anywhere from 3-0 to 1-1-1 puts them in the playoffs.
  
• If the Steelers go 1-2 in their last 3 games, they still have a 99.5% chance of getting in the playoffs and still a 47% chance of being the 3 seed. But that might include the Chargers losing a game and they play Detroit and Denver at home and Oakland on the road - not likely to happen. Or the Browns would have to lose a game and their schedule is also pretty easy.
  
• If the Steelers go 0-3, they still have an 86.8% chance of getting in, but then they have a 44% chance to be the 4 seed and a 38% chance as the 6.
• After running 20 million computer simulations, the most likely scenario is for the Steelers to go 1-2, just edging out going 2-1. Finishing 3-0 is as likely as 0-3 (a little less actually).

Pittsburgh in Frommers Top 13 for 2008

How does this happen or rather, how much did they pay to get this acknowledgment? Ok, 2008 is the 250th birthday for the city, but there a lots of cities older and who can pronounce, let alone celebrate, a semiquincentennial.

But there it is in black and white on official Frommer's web stationary.

Who knew Pittsburgh belonged with the likes of Morocco, St. Lucia, Quito, Cardiff, Wales, Romania, Seoul, and a couple places in Nova Scotia and Micronesia? Of course, the Burgh has to hang with the likes of Denver and New Orleans, which is fine, but New Jersey? Some strange stuff going on here.

Even stranger is that the Burgh is on the list twice. The American Whiskey Trail makes the cut. It's a conglomerate of several sites and areas, including the area where the whiskey rebellion occurred, which is of course western Pennsylvania. Come to the Burgh and you can knock of two of the 13 on the list in one fell swoop!! That alone should make it THE destination for 2008.

Sid and the Pens Return East

A very positive West Coast tour for Sid and the Pens. Even though Sid didn't register a point in Calgary or Vancouver, the Pens still won both which is a very good sign for the team. They have now won 6 of 7 and are 3 points out of first in the Atlantic. As Darren Elliott at si.com points out, this season has been very streaky throughout the NHL and the Pens can be thrown in with everyone else. It will be a very close race throughout, especially in the East - the Atlantic is a very strong division. If nothing else, the Pens run through the Pacific showcased the strength of the East. Granted, the Oilers and Flames aren't strong this year but the Canucks lead the division. Maybe the Pens got lucky to catch them in that dreaded first home game after a road trip.

All of this should make for a good game on Tuesday vs Philly. The Pens are playing better now than earlier while the Flyers are not playing as well. With the Devils also on a roll, is there a tougher 4 team group in a division than the Rangers, Flyers, Devils and Pens?

-Kudos to Empty Netters for finding this video of a very young Sid the Kid. The on ice moves are the same, his basement reminds me of what Mario's looked like, his media presence is unwavering, the only difference between young Sid and today is his voice:



-Do you think fans in Calgary are more disappointed that their teams lost or that Sid didn't get a point in either game?

-Letang! Does he now belong in the top 3 shootout shooters? Methinks so. My first three shooters: Christensen, Sykora, Letang. Yep, no Sid, no Geno, no Ruutu. Has Christensen surpassed Jossi Jokinen as the best shootout artist in the NHL?

-Crosby vs Luongo. Penalty shot in OT. Great drama. Good move by Sid, better save by Luongo, who based on this one game, deserves every accolade he gets. He's scary good.

-Cool list of Sid's points in each NHL city posted by James Mirtle:

City GP G A PTS +/- PIM SOG

1 Pittsburgh 94 47 93 140 11 92 316

2 Long Island 8 3 12 15 1 14 30

3 Philadelphia 9 8 7 15 4 14 33

4 New Jersey 9 4 5 9 2 10 22

5 Washington 5 3 5 8 1 6 18

-Sid vs Vinny? It's a fair argument. Better make them while it's still reasonable, before Sid turns 21 and outdistances everyone and makes questions like this look silly. But for now, fair question.

-Kind of overlooked in winning 7 of 8 is that Geno Malkin has been generally quiet. He continues to get goals but doesn't seem to dominate at times like he has earlier in the season. Of course, that doesn't prevent people from making the "If Sid is Gretzky, Malkin is Messier" comparisons.

-What has gotten into Big Georges? Love the way he's playing, but am still concerned he's going to take a penalty at any second, kind of like Gary Roberts.

-Goodbye Recchin Ball. Good luck in Atlanta. Hope it will work out in the South.

Steelers Run into Pats Buzzsaw

34-13? Not so bad, could have been worse. Clearly, the Steelers have a long way to go if they have any hope in a rematch, which is what all of them professed they wanted after the game. Coach Tomlin said as much after the game. The problem is they have a very big game coming up on Sunday and based on their performances over the past month, the Steelers will have a tough time winning even though it is at Heinz.
A few notes & thoughts from yesterday:

• Despite Cowher and others proclaiming at halftime that the Steelers should feel good about their first half, the game was already over. Settling for field goals instead of scoring TDs against the best team only dooms you to losing. Losing teams kick FGs, winning teams score TDs. If the score was 21-17 Steelers at the half, maybe it doesn't change much of what happened in the second half, but the mentality would have been different. The Steelers could not have expected to continue to have the chances in the 2nd half that they had in the first. And the fact that they didn't take full advantage of them in the first half put them in a hole at the half even though they should have been in the lead.
  
• 36 straight pass plays? Shades on 2002 when the Pats and Raiders both dismantled the Steelers at Heinz by ignoring the run and just whipping up on the secondary. I don't think there is another team that can or will do what the Pats did, thank goodness. Well, maybe the Colts?
• Despite clearly making defensive adjustments in previous games to shut down offenses after they had early success, were any made yesterday? I won't and can't say for sure, but it sure looked to me like none were made, even after the 5 straight passes to Welker and no pressure was applied to Brady at all in the second half.
  
• Anthony Smith was burned twice and the second flea flicker from Moss to Brady to Gafney looked like it could have been designed this week in the dirt just to go after Smith.
• Belichick on Smith: "We've faced better safeties than that." Very true. Bottom line is that Smith isn't good enough right now. He needs to get better; let's hope yesterday was a learning experience.
• Ike Taylor was also guilty on the first long TD that went to Moss. Why on a play action does he even react? Why take a step toward the line of scrimmage? Taylor's task should have been to just stay with Moss. Go wherever he goes. Ignore the run. When was the last time he made a tackle on a run anyway? Smith has to come up against the run even though he bit too hard on that play fake as well. But Ike has to stay with Moss and can't let him run by him.
• Game may have been over, or just about, but facing third and then fourth and goal from the 1 and the Steelers call a fade and a gadget reverse? Do offensive coordinators out think themselves? It's not just Arians who is guilty of this, it seems all offensive coordinators are scared of running the ball too often and/or sticking with something that is working. So on third down, knowing the Najeh had already converted two short yardage situations very easily and that they were running well against the Pats, did Arians think: "well we can't do that again, they'll surely stop us this time, let's try the fade, they won't suspect that play at all." It's one yard, there is no need for trickeration. Hand it to either Parker or Najeh two times and, listen up Anthony Smith, I guarantee they get into the end zone.
• The fade pass at the goal line is the absolute worst play call I can imagine in that situation. It works maybe 10% of the time and even then only if you have a superior receiver. Antonio Gates made it work for the Chargers yesterday to tie the game, but he's an All-Pro and that was the second fade the Chargers ran at the goal line. The Jets tried it as well and failed. It fails the majority of the time. Even if you acknowledge that this play works 50% of the time (and I don't think it works anywhere near that often), are you telling me that you want to run a play from the 1 that has as much a chance to not work as work? It's one yard, your success rate better be around 80%, not south of 50. Ditch the fade please!
• I don't have as much of a problem with the 4th down reverse to Hines because I generally don't have a problem with getting the ball in Hines' hands as often as possible, especially with only a yard to gain. But again, the play there is to run the ball.
• Those two plays tell you as much about the Steelers "identity" as you need to know. The next time you hear a TV head say the Steelers identity is to run the ball and then play tough defense, pleas turn them off, they are demeaning your intelligence and clearly not watching the Steelers play. They are relying on stereotypes that are not true and stem from the image of Pittsburgh in general, which has as much to do with the Steelers style of play as Anthony Smith's guarantee had to do with the outcome of the game: nothing.
  
• Two overlooked plays that just may have changed the outcome: after taking a 3-0 lead, allowing the Pats to return the kickoff to their 48 was inexcusable. And at the beginning of the second half, on their first drive, after Willie Parker runs for 18 yards, Arians calls for a fake screen, fake draw, long pass from midfield. Woolfork blows up the play by torching Mahan and Faneca. Why not continue to run? Or if you have to throw, why call a play that requires two fakes and Big Ben to have his back to the line of scrimmage for so long that by the time he turns around, big fat Woolfork is right on top of him? Who cares if Hines doesn't have anyone within 20 yards of him, the offensive line can't hold their blocks long enough for Ben to execute two fakes. And on top of that, if Ben can see Woolfork, he avoids him easily. Leaving him without a sense as to what is happening at the line and without a sense as to where pressure is coming from takes away his best attribute: his ability to get away from pressure and make a play. This play call is a prime example of an offensive coordinator getting enamored of his own imagination and not applying the offensive talents he has to the best of their abilities. The outcome of this play not only set the tone for the drive by causing the Steelers to punt, but it set the tone for the entire second half. Again, you can't allow opportunities to slip by, and being at midfield and being able to run the ball should have resulted in points.
  
• The Steelers have achieved a nice balance on offense, but when it comes down to needing yards, to a play that absolutely has to be made, a play that everyone on offense better have confidence in and that should succeed 85% of the time, they don't run the ball. They throw. Even on fourth and 1 yesterday, they threw the ball. And that is their identity. And unfortunately it is becoming more and more similar to every other NFL team. In number of plays, they are balanced, but in terms of importance of plays, they almost invariably throw the ball.
• That may not be such a bad thing since Big Ben is their best offensive player. But then again, their offensive line is not a good pass blocking unit and their receivers, especially without Santonio, are weak.
• Just so everyone understands where I'm coming from: my idea of a perfect offensive football game is to do the exact opposite of what the Pats did yesterday: run the ball on every play. The ability to effectively run the ball demoralizes and wears down a defense that throwing cannot.
  
• But I know you have to be able to pass and that the 2007 edition Steelers are a better passing team than running team.
• Phil Simms talking about Big Ben's "excellent" game and that the Steelers offense was "doing their job" almost made me sick right on the TV. Ben wasn't bad but he made one play all night and that was a simple side step of a lineman before hitting Najeh in the end zone. Coming into the game, the Steelers needed Ben to make plays and he didn't. Someone on offense needed to make plays on offense and nobody did. Right now, Ben is their only play maker on offense. Santonio is getting there, Parker is not a play maker, he is too dependent on his o-line. The problem with Ben being the only playmaker is that he needs another playmaker to be on the other end of his passes. Maybe Sanotonio will be that soon. The Steelers are a good offense right now, they are not a great offense because they don't have the players who make the plays that decide games, or who make sure you get 7 instead of 3.
  
• The Steeler defense has players who do make plays in Troy, James Harrison and Casey Hampton. They don't measure up to Woodson, Lake and Lloyd but they do things like cause turnovers, bust up running plays in the backfield and produce defensive scores. They don't just make tackles after 2 yard gains or bat down passes. There has not been a long period of time in recent Steeler memory when they did not have playmakers on defense.
• Next Steeler defensive playmaker: Lawrence Timmons.
• I think the Allan Rossum experience should be shut down. The big show got off to a rousing start including a kickoff return for a TD early on in game 3 vs the Niners. But since then, he has been average at the very best and not anywhere near the advertised "All-Pro" returner that he is tagged with. Um, that was 2 years ago and he regressed since then. The "at least he holds onto the ball" argument is really a lame one and it only resonates because of who he is replacing: remember Ricardo? If Cowher had not lost his mind last year and had run a competent football player out to return kicks last year, Rossum's season would not look so rosy.
  
• Who else thought the Pats would keep throwing the ball when the got it with just under 3:00 to go in the game and the towel already thrown in? I'm surprised Brady remembered what to do with someone else in the backfield.
• For all the pain yesterday will inflict, mostly because the ecstasy of victory would have been so great, next week's game vs the Jags is bigger. Lose to the Jags and winning the division is in doubt, holding on to the 3 seed is in serious jeopardy and even making the playoffs becomes less than certain. That is, unless you think a 2-4 road team will somehow rebound off of two straight losses and go on the road and win: a prime time game in St Louis (no matter how bad they are, prime time games jack up the home team) and the season finale in Baltimore, who will have had enough time to regroup from their Pats effort to get up again for their hated rivals, especially if there is a chance to knock them out of the playoffs.