Thursday, December 13, 2007

Steelers Thursday Notes

Some interesting info and thoughts floating around today:

  • PFW.com wonders if the Steelers secondary can bounce back from their embarrassing performance on Sunday. Their stunning conclusion: they are still very good against everyone else but the Patriots. The Steeler defense remains #1 overall by a wide margin but is now #2 in both rushing and passing yards allowed.
  • PFW.com also ranks Ben as the best mobile QB in the league now that a certain Atlanta QB in is jail.
  • Interesting site that gives the Steelers a 98% chance of making the playoffs. A couple of other items of note from the site, after you get through all the stats, are:
    • their seed is currently calculated as 3.5, meaning they are as likely to be the 4 seed as the 3 seed. Still difficult to believe the Chargers would be able to come back vs the Titans but it would be nicer if somehow the Lions knocked them off.
    • For this week's games, the ones with the biggest impact to the Steelers playoff chances and seeding are: Browns/Bills: a Bills win would help the Steelers the most in terms of playoff seeding (excluding the Steeler game itself), even more than a Detroit win over SD would help.
    • Finishing anywhere from 3-0 to 1-1-1 puts them in the playoffs.
    • If the Steelers go 1-2 in their last 3 games, they still have a 99.5% chance of getting in the playoffs and still a 47% chance of being the 3 seed. But that might include the Chargers losing a game and they play Detroit and Denver at home and Oakland on the road - not likely to happen. Or the Browns would have to lose a game and their schedule is also pretty easy.
    • If the Steelers go 0-3, they still have an 86.8% chance of getting in, but then they have a 44% chance to be the 4 seed and a 38% chance as the 6.
    • After running 20 million computer simulations, the most likely scenario is for the Steelers to go 1-2, just edging out going 2-1. Finishing 3-0 is as likely as 0-3 (a little less actually).

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