Pirates on June 11

As of today, despite a crushing 9th inning loss last night they stand at an almost respectable 31-34, close enough to think that they might actually be able to reach .500 this year. What has put them in this situation and what has to change and/or happen for them to do it?

The Good
-The outfield has generally been the most productive in baseball. Can they keep it up?
-They are 12-10 in one run games. Maybe they are finally doing the little things necessary. Then again, as most baseball stats guys will tell you, maybe this is just the law of averages evening out. But consider that since 1994, the Bucs have been over .500 in one run games only three seasons: 1997, 2001 and 2002. In the division winning seasons of 1990-92, the Bucs were far above .500 in one run games. Suffice to say, it seems to indicate that you generally win one run games at the same rate that you win other games, though there can be anomalies. Is 2008 an anomaly or will the record recede back towards .500?
-Their pythagorean record is 30-35, so it's not as if the team is winning games it shouldn't and the record masks a deficiency that will be exposed as the season goes on.
-Matt Capps was, up until last night, one of 3 closers who have double digit saves who have not blown one. Still, he has turned into a very reliable closer and should remain so. The bullpen in general has been a positive, especially with Grabow and Marte doing well from the left side and Yates from the right. There is no reason they won't continue to perform well and it jsut goes to show that the single biggest variable from one season to the next is relief pitching. You can build a good pen from guys who surprise and ride it for a year.
-The Pirates have played the second hardest schedule in baseball and are still 31-33. The fact that they're 3-9 vs the Cubs jacks that schedule strength number up, but the fact remains that they should play an easier schedule the rest of the way than they have so far.
-Because of their strength of schedule, ESPN ranks the Bucs as #9 in their RPI formula. There are 4 NL Central teams in the top 9, primarily because it's the only division in baseball with 3 teams above .500. But it's a sign that the Bucs have played decent baseball against good teams. Why can't they play at least as well against weaker teams?

The Bad
-The pitching has been very close to the worst in baseball. This has to get better to finish close to .500 but the Bucs' history is littered with guys who show promise on year and flame out the next: Perez, Benson, Schmidt, Duke. you'd expect Snell and Gorzo to balance things out somewhat, but you never know with this teams and it's pitching luck.
-We're not talking playoffs here. Keep it modest. .500 is the goal. Playing in a division with the best team in baseball as of today means the division is out of the question, unlike the 1997 scenario.
-They have been close to .500 at similar points in seasons past and have had the bottom drop out as the season fades and they fall further behind. Why would this season be any different?

The All-Important Standings
Yankees 33-32 - $209M
Pirates 31-34 2.0 $49M
Mets 30-33 2.0 $138M
Tigers 27-37 5.5 $139M

In looking at the above, the good seems to outweigh the bad, maybe this team can win 73 games instead of 72. They're currently on pace for 77 wins and have held to that pace for about a month. History says otherwise, but I'm bullish on the Bucs:

73-89