Pens Spotlight: Jordan Staal

UPDATE 10/24: The Spotlight (or the presence of his older brother) worked it's magic once again last night as Jordan Staal played his best game of the season so far in the Pens 4-1 win. He finished with only 1 sweet assist but had many scoring chances, set up several great opportunities for his linemates and was all over the ice. It should be a game that turns Staal's confidence around and gets him back to playing the kind of hockey he's capable of playing.

I know, I know. The Steelers are playing a fairly big game this weekend, the World Series is underway, and the Pirates hired a pitching coach! So why Jordan Staal? Because as things currently stand, he is the most perplexing pro athlete in Pittsburgh. Adam LaRoche, Ian Snell and Max Starks aside, questions about Staal and his future are plenty.

When my friends and I used to attend Pens games at the Igloo back in the 80s-90s, we used to "put the spotlight" on a player for a shift. We did this maybe once or twice a game and it was usually focused on a player who we thought needed to pick up their game. We wanted to watch him closely to see what he was doing without getting distracted. So we'd only follow this player during his shift on the ice. More often than not, it provided a different view of the player, maybe nothing super noteworthy, but still of interest. Of course, there were many times we put the spotlight on 66 just because he was so amazing to watch at any time.

So let's put the spotlight on Jordan Staal.

Over at hockeybuzz.com (a generally gossip rag of a site), the Pens writer Brian Metzer stands above much of what appears on the site and today offers up an interesting take on Staal, comparing Staal's situation to the one Markus Naslund faced in 1993 with the Pens:

Naslund was selected by Pittsburgh 16th overall during the 1991 NHL Entry Draft and came with a pretty impressive offensive pedigree. He had been lighting up the J20 SuperElit league in Sweden playing alongside longtime friend Peter Forsberg in Modo. Many in Pittsburgh were excited to add the dynamic forward to an already impressive roster.

Unfortunately, that roster is the main reason that the young Swede wasn’t able to succeed in Pittsburgh. Naslund appeared in 71 games during the 1993-94 season, recording only 11 pts (4G 11A). He was not given much of an opportunity to succeed, as he was cast in a third or fourth line role most of the time and received little to no time on the power play.

We know the end result of this was Craig Patrick making one of the all-time worst trades in pro sports history, giving Naslund to Vancouver for Alek Stojanov. (Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio; Aramis Ramirez for Bobby Hill; those were bad, this was was worse.) Metzer concludes by saying that trading Staal:

is looking more and more like the scenario that will have to play out for Jordan Staal to thrive offensively in the league. We can only hope that Ray Shero is able to make a better deal that his predecessor did 12 years ago.

GBoF doesn't think it's come to trading Staal yet and is still unlikely to happen at any time. Staal is still only 20 years old. Luca Caputi, one of the Pens top prospects, is only 20 days younger than Staal and he's not anywhere close to being NHL ready. Ok, expectations for Staal are much higher, but let's not forget he's only 20 years old.

Also, Staal looks to be a player who easily loses his confidence. Something that happens a lot with 20 year olds. And something that happens more frequently when you see guys named Crosby and Malkin, who are not much older than you, do things that you can only dream of and can't pull off no matter how hard you try. Confidence becomes less fragile with experience and age.

Confidence also comes in the NHL by scoring goals. I'll admit that so far in 2008, he has not generated many quality scoring chances. And he only potted 12 goals last year. But something happened about 2/3 of the way through last season and he began to get scoring chances and he looked like he was ready to emerge. That he didn't was only due to the fact that I believe he just barely missed his spots and hit more posts than anyone else down the stretch last year.

I will also argue that trading any player, no matter the sport, due to position depth is absurd and once you start doing so, you will start building a losing team (except for clear skill differences such as acquiring a goalie or a pitcher). Just look at the Pirates for a clear example fo this. If Jordan Staal is to become a good hockey player, he'll do it and he'll do it whether he plays center or wing, it won't matter. It may take a little longer if he plays wing, but it will come.

This season, Staal has been presented with an opportunity to play on the second line, both with and without Malkin. And he will continue to get that chance - a chance that is like the time Naslund got when he was on 66's wing. The window is there, if he does well, there won't be any talk of Staal not getting enough ice time or being relegated to the third line. If he does well, he'll be a fixture at center or the wing as a top 6 forward.

But he hasn't taken advantage of that chance yet. I see a player who is unsure of himself and whose confidence is low. He looks indecisive at times. What he needs is a goal and, much like the hitter in baseball who gets a broken bat Texas Leaguer and then goes on a hitting tear, his confidence will grow and he will become more comfortable with his place on the team. It may take a few goals but they will come. And only then will we be able to effectively judge Staal.

Now is not the time to decide to trade him. Anytime you beign to think about trading a player, you want to make sure you're trading him when you can get good value in return and not when he's at a low point in value. Right now, Staal is still at a relatively high point because of his age and potential. Another full season of less than 15 goals and that will go down. The key for Ray Shero is being able to judge Staal and what he'll become before other GM's do.

But to do so, he needs to see what Staal can do with a good sizable opportunity, including power play time. 7 games are not a season. If, as I suspect, he finishes the season with 20+ goals, we'll know he's arrived and is likely to keep improving and should remain a Pen, even if his price will go up. If he never finds his touch or it appears only fleetingly, remember he is only 20 years old and he'll be cheaper for the Pens to sign this coming offseason. But also know that if he is presented a perfect chance playing on the second line and the PP and doesn't produce, Shero may decide that he never will.

Personally, I don't think Shero will decide to trade Staal. He's just too young and big and he has scored 29 goals before. But if he does, I agree with Brian Metzer and we'd better see a lot more than Alek Stojanov coming back to the Burgh.