Pens All But Clinch Atlantic

After a desultory loss to the Isles in what was a less important game than many were making it out to be, the Pens rebounded last night to blank the Devils 2-0 behind Marc Andre Fleury and a strong defensive gameplan. With the win, the Pens automatically clinched a playoff spot for the second straight year.

And they virtually assured themselves the Atlantic division crown as well. This is highly significant because it means they will be either the #1 or 2 seed in the Eastern Conference and not the #4 or 5, and will get to play the #6 or 7 seeded team.

Why have the Pens virtually clinched the division? It's all in the numbers. The Pens have 5 games left (home vs Isles, and home and homes vs the Rangers and Flyers). Normally, I'd say the Pens should get 7 or 8 points from any 5 game stretch. But let's be conservative here and say they play poorly and get only 4 points out of those games. That leaves the Pens with 99 points. Who can catch them:

• The Devils currently have 91 points with 6 to play (2 vs NYR, NYI, BOS, 2 vs PHIL). To consider about the Devils: the Pens now own the tiebreaker against them, meaning the Devils need to get one MORE point than the Pens to win the division; and they can't score at all right now and are in a semi tailspin. So for the Devils to top the Pens, they need to get to 100pts and to do that they need 9 points in 6 games, or a 4-1-1 or 5-1 record. Does anyone see them doing that, which would include beating either the Rangers or Flyers twice. I don't. Give the Pens 5 points in their final 5 and it is next to impossible for the Devils to overtake the Pens.
• The Rangers currently have 89 points, also with 6 to play (2 vs PIT, 2 vs NYI, 2 vs NJ). The tiebreaker with the Pens is still TBD but the Rangers are currently 4-2 vs the Pens this year (the same that the Devils were vs the Pens before these last two games). To get to 99 to tie the Pens, they would need to go 5-1 and likely beat the Pens in both the remaining games which would also give them the tiebreaker advantage. Of note is the the Rangers, after an extended hot streak are 2-2-2 in their last six. Can they go5-1? Nope because they wold have to beat either the Pens or Devils twice.
  
• From the Pens point of view, the fact that the Devils and Rangers play twice is ideal. If they split, they knock each other out of contention for the division. If one team were to win both, and the Rangers have dominated the Devils this year, it knocks one team out but still leaves the other in dire straits for points.
• The Flyers? Too far back and too many games vs the Pens Rangers and Devils remaining. 89 points with 5 to play means the most they can get is 99. Not going to happen.

So who will the Pens play as the #1 or 2 seed? Right now, it's hard to distinguish between the two bottom seeds, any of the remaining possibilities could be either 7 or 8:

• The Flyers currently are in 7th and will likely make the playoffs. The Flyers dominated the Pens easly this season but the Pens have started to even things out. Much of how I may feel about this matchup will be determined in the final 2 regular season games thee teams play. But at this time I think this is the most likely first round opponent for the Pens and I don't like it too much.
  
• The Bruins are currently 8th and could stumble. But they are also 2-1-1 vs the Pens this year and play them tough. That said, it seems that the Pens must go through Boston to win the Cup, so I say bring them on.
• The Capitals are 9th as of now but coming on and have 2 games vs TB left. Everyone in the league hopes the caps and AO make the playoffs for marketing reasons and also so nobody has to justify their vote for AO as Hart winner. The Pens hope they make the playoffs for two reasons: the desire to revive the domination of the Caps that the Pens enjoyed in the playoffs in the 90s, and because since Sid and AO joined the league, the Pens have dominated the Caps. I would take this matchup in a heartbeat and enjoy hearing all the whining from DC fans about how the Verizon Center was taken over by black and gold.
• How about the Senators? They've righted themselves somewhat, but don't rule out another brief freefall with games against Toronto and Montreal left. Let's just say this, a rematch from last year would be very tasty for the Pens because it would mean that the already fragile Sens will come into the playoffs not playing well and that could lead to internal combustion and a first round win for whomever they play.
• I don't see the Rangers or Devils falling down to 7 or 8 and after last night, I think the Caps are the only team that is currently out of the playoffs that could get in. Say goodnight to Buffalo, Florida and Toronto.
• So who do I want to see the Pens play? In order: Caps, Sens, Bruins, Flyers. I can't wait.